Earticle

The risk of software projects is measured in terms of cost that is needed to abate the risk. Traditional practice to measure the risk of software projects uses risk exposure; however, risk measure cannot quantify the risk beyond the expected value of cost. Software project managers are keen to quantify the risk based on a certain probability which is beyond the expected value of the cost. This research work presents a model to measure the risk based on certain probability beyond the expectation. A case-study validates that proposed model shows an improvement in the measurement of risk of real software projects compared to the actual risk of software projects.

Many data sets obtained from surveys or medical trials often include missing observations. When these data sets are analyzed, it is general to use only complete cases. However, it is possible to have big biases or involve inefficiency. In this paper, we consider a method for estimating parameters in logistic linear models involving non-ignorable missing data mechanism. A binomial response and normal exploratory model for the missing data are used. We fit the model using the EM algorithm. The E-step is derived by Metropolis-hastings algorithm to generate a sample for missing data and Monte-carlo technique, and the M-step is by Newton-Raphson to maximize likelihood function. Asymptotic variances of the MLE's are derived and the standard error and estimates of parameters are compared.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which causes severe respiratory illness, has become a pandemic. The World Health Organization has declared it a public health crisis of international concern. We developed a susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered (SEIR) model for COVID-19 to show the importance of estimating the reproduction number (R0). This work is focused on predicting the COVID-19 outbreak in its early stage in India based on an estimation of R0. The developed model will help policymakers to take active measures prior to the further spread of COVID-19. Data on daily newly infected cases in India from March 2, 2020 to April 2, 2020 were to estimate R0 using the earlyR package. The maximum-likelihood approach was used to analyze the distribution of R0 values, and the bootstrap strategy was applied for resampling to identify the most likely R0 value. We estimated the median value of R0 to be 1.471 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.351 to 1.592) and predicted that the new case count may reach 39,382 (95% CI, 34,300 to 47,351) in 30 days.

Learning and evolving are two basics for data mining. As compared with classical learning theory based on objective function with minimizing training errors, the recently evolutionary computing has had an efficient approach for constructing optimal model without the minimizing training errors. The global search of evolutionary computing in solution space can settle the local optima problems of learning models. In this research, combining co-evolving algorithm into statistical learning theory, we propose an co-evolutionary computing for statistical learning theory for overcoming local optima problems of statistical learning theory. We apply proposed model to classification and prediction problems of the learning. In the experimental results, we verify the improved performance of our model using the data sets from UCI machine learning repository and KDD Cup 2000.

This paper computes the repurchase index based on statistical modeling. Using the transaction record of a certain product, the repurchase index is obtained by fitting the Poisson regression model. The customers are classified into 5 groups based on the index giving the information about the propensity to repurchase.

The R language is an open source programming language and a software environment for statistical computing and data visualization. The R language is widely used among a lot of statisticians and data scientists to develop statistical software and data analysis. The R language provides a variety of statistical and graphical techniques, including basic descriptive statistics, linear or nonlinear modeling, conventional or advanced statistical tests, time series analysis, clustering, simulation, and others. In this paper, we first introduce the R language and investigate its features as a data analytics tool. As results, we may explore the application possibility of the R language in the field of data analytics.

본 연구에서는 여러 응용분야에서 자주 사용되는 통계적 모의실험이나 통계계산에 유용하게 사용될 루틴들을 Fortran과 C 언어의 Subroutine이나 함수 형태로 작성하여 라이브러리로 구현하였다. 여기에는 일반적으로 자주 사용되는 확률변수들의 난수생성기와 대표적인 확률분포들의 확률 계산이나 상위확률 및 상위백분위수의 계산 등에 유용한 루틴들을 포함하고 있다.

In this thesis Fortran and C Libraries are implemented and applied to the real situation of statistical simulation. They contain the routines of random number generators and for various statistical distributions which often used in stochastic simulation. They also contain the routines for calculating probabilities and upper quantiles of various statistical distributions Each routine of them was tested by the various procedures and proved to be very stable

The conventional computing is a centralizing system, but it has been gradually going to develop ubiquitous computing which moves roles away from the main. The Community Computing, a new paradigm, is proposed to implement environment of ubiquitous computing. In this environment, it is important to accept the user demand. Hence in this paper recognizes pattern of user's activity statistically and proposes a method of pattern estimation in community computing. In addition, user's activity varies with time and the activity has the priority We reflect these. Also, we improve accuracy of the method through Knowledge Base organization and the feedback system. We make program using Microsoft Visual C++ for evaluating performance of proposed method, then simulate it. We can confirm it from the experiment result that using proposal method is better in environment of community computing.