Earticle

해외 플랜트 건설 프로젝트는 대규모 프로젝트 특성상 다양한 리스크가 존재한다. 최근 국내 건설기업의 해외 플랜트 건설 프로젝트 수주는 증가하고 있고, 그에 따라 발생 가능한 리스크의 관리, 사업비 예측의 중요성 이 더욱 강조되고 있다. 이에, 본 연구에서는 해외 플랜트 건설 프로젝트의 사업비(CAPEX, OPEX) 변동을 초래 하는 리스크 분석을 통해 사업비 변동성을 예측하고자 하였다. 본 연구의 수행 절차는 다음과 같다.. 첫째, 해외 건설프로젝트수행을 위해 고려해야 할 주요 리스크 요인을 정의하였다. 둘째, CAPEX, OPEX에 영향을 미치는 리 스크의 영향강도와 발생확률에 대해 전문가 설문조사를 수행하였다. 셋째, PI 평가를 통해 CAPEX, OPEX 리스 크 관리 우선순위를 도출하고 특수성을 비교분석 하였다. 넷째, 몬테칼로 시뮬레이션을 활용하여 사업비의 변동 확률밀도함수를 도출하였다. 다섯째, 신뢰구간 90% 내 CAPEX와 OPEX 변동성을 추정하였으며 각각 초기 예측 가치 대비 8.56%, 4.57% 변동할 확률이 있음을 도출하였다. 본 연구결과는 CAPEX, OPEX 리스크 관리 방안을 구축하고 예비비를 산정하는데 활용할 수 있다.

Overseas plant construction projects have various risks due to the nature of large-scale projects. Recently, orders for overseas plant construction projects by domestic construction companies have been increasing, and the importance of managing risks and predicting project costs has been further emphasized. This study aims to predict the volatility of project costs (CAPEX, OPEX) in overseas plant construction projects through the analysis of risk factors causing fluctuations. The procedure for conducting this study is as follows.: First, we defined major risk factors to be considered in overseas construction projects. Second, an survey was conducted to assess the impact and probability of risk factors affecting CAPEX and OPEX. Third, through PI assessment, we derived the priorities of CAPEX and OPEX risk management and conducted a comparative analysis of their characteristic. Fourth, by using Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS), the probability density function of cost fluctuations (CAPEX, OPEX) was derived. Fifth, within a 90% confidence interval, the volatility of CAPEX and OPEX was estimated, revealing probabilities of 8.56% and 4.57%, respectively, for deviations from the initially estimated costs. This study can be used to establish strategies for CAPEX and OPEX risk management and to calculate contingency funds.

This research introduces the Financial Effect Measurement (FEM) models which measures both the improvement and the innovation performance of Quality Control Circle (QCC) and activities of Six Sigma. Concepts and principle of Comprehensive Income Statement (CIS), Balanced Scorecard (BSC), Time-Driven Activity Based-Costing (TDABC) and Total Productive Maintenance (TPM) are applied in order to develop the 4 FEM models presented in this paper. First of all, FEM using CIS depicts the improvement effects of production capacity and yield using relationships between demand and supply, and line balancing efficiency between bottleneck process and non-bottleneck processes . Secondly, cause-and-effect relation of Key Performance Indicator (KPI) is used to present Critical Success Factor (CSF) effects for QC Story 15 steps of QCC and DMAIC (Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve, and Control) of Six Sigma. The next is FEM model for service management innovation activities that uses TDABC to calculate the time-driven effect for improving the indirect activities according to the cost object. Lastly, FEM model for TPM activities presents the interpretation of improvement effect model of TPM Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) and Operating Expenditure (OPEX) maintenance using profit, cash and Economic Added Value (EVA) as metrics of enterprise values. To better understand and further investigate FEMs, recent cases on National Quality Circle Contest are used to evaluate new financial effect measurement developed in this paper.

This paper proposes a strategic model of linkage between productivity metrics and financial accounting metrics to properly evaluate the financial effect of TPM activities and the business performance. This linkage strategy provides a connection tool for clear communication between factory-level and headquarters that the metrics proposed by this paper ultimately improves a quality of support from the management by receiving the factors required for productivity activities in the practical field. This factor includes such as equipment, raw materials and labors. Here, we propose that chain reaction models using break down structure of productivity metrics and financial metrics enhance the knowledge sharing of KPI (Key Performance Indicator) which generally tend to create oversimplified communication between management in headquarters and employees in the practical fields. The productivity metrics include OEE(Overall Equipment Effectiveness) of TPM (Total Productive Maintenance), OLE (Overall Labor Effectiveness) of PAC(Performance and Analysis and Control) activities, and OYE (Overall Yield Effectiveness) of TMM(Total Material Management) activities. The financial accounting metrics include ROE(Return on Equity), ROA(Return on Asset), and AVR(Added-Value Rate). The suggested chain reaction model selects the financial metrics as initial stage and branch down until final stage of productivity metrics. When demand exceeds supply, an ideal speed rate, the lean OEE strategy can be initially applied to reduce the gap between the demand and supply, then apply variable costing to estimate correct amount of operating profit. In addition, the paper presents a new type of model for linkage between financial accounting metrics including CAPEX(Capital Expenditure), OPEX(Operating Expenditure), EVA(Economic Added Value), DCL(Degree of Combined Leverage), and TPM productivity activities including AM(Autonomous Maintenance), PM(Preventive Maintenance), MP(Maintenance Prevention) and QM(Quality Maintenance). In order to support the evidence of proposed linkage strategy, a case analysis on 52 projects from national TPM contest from 2011 to 2012 is analyzed. The case presents the classification of CAPEX and OPEX activities from TPM, and proposes the correct implementation of financial effect for TPM projects.

This thesis proposed an objective and accurate fundamental numeric data for the economics and business analysis of applicable CCS technology to plant using existing fossil fuel by analyzing the influence of process improvement for commercialization of Carbon Capture and Storage(CCS) technology, which enables storing CO2 generated by fossil fuel by extracting before emitting to air and press until it becomes liquid, and development and performance improvement of new solvent on Total Life Cycle Cost(TLC) of CCS.

This paper describes an upcoming technology, currently under development, based on packet-optical transport. We present an enhanced packet optical transport system (ePOTS) to cope with the CAPEX/OPEX issues of current networks, and explain the system’s major features, its potential services, and network deployment scenarios. Our results show that ePOTS can provide multimedia services efficiently and reduce the network cost by around one-third that of a multiprotocol label switching network.

From the viewpoint of service operators the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) for developing a communication service comprises from two parts; CAPital EXpenditure (CAPEX) and OPerational EXpenditure (OPEX). These two types of costs are interrelated and affect any service provider’s deployment strategy. In many traditional methods, selection of critical elements of a new service is performed in a heuristic manner aimed at reducing only the OPEX part of the TCO which is not necessarily optimal. Furthermore, exact cost modeling for such services is not always possible and contains some uncertainties. In the current work, after cost modeling of each video streaming element by capturing the effect of the model uncertainties, the TCO optimization problem for video streaming over IP networks is formulated as a stochastic optimization problem. The solution of the proposed optimization problem can cope with the cost modeling uncertainties and track the dynamism in the TCO and lead to a time-varying optimal solution. Numerical analysis results verify the developed method.

마이크로 프로세서 (micro-pocessor)와 LSI(Large scale integrated circuit) 등 반도체 기술의 발달은 교환시스템의 발전에 중요한 영향을 주었고 특히 마이크로 프로세서는 소용양(500회선 미만)의 사설교환기와 각종 교환시스템의 부분적 기능장치나 부대장치등에 광범위하게 응용되고 있다. 본문은 이들 반도체 부품을 이용하므로서 기계식 사설교환기(PABX)나 키-폰을 대체할 수 있고 가격, 크기, 및 성능 상으로볼때 매우 시장성이 높은 소용량 사설자동교환기인 OPEX-50/100에 대하여 기술하였다.