Earticle

With innovations in technology, alternate energies like solar and wind are becoming more popular. Utilities in some parts of the world rely on Wind energy over coal or gas fired power. Wind energy output is highly mercurial in nature, it changes rapidly even within the course of minutes. Hence, power system operators have to predict changes of the wind power production in order to schedule the Spinning reserve capacity and to manage the grid operations. To reduce the reserve capacity and increase the wind power penetration, the accurate forecasting of wind speed is needed. In addition, wind power forecasting plays an important role in the allocation of balancing power. Although the prediction accuracy of wind power forecasting is lower than the prediction accuracy of load forecasting, wind power forecasts still play a key role to address the operation challenges in electricity supply. This paper deals with Long-term forecast of wind energy for the state grid of Karnataka by employing a simple time series multiplicative modelling. Wind energy production is predicted for the year 2015 using the data collected from 2011-2014.