Earticle

본 연구에서는 신제품 확산 모델 활용에 있어서 보다 적은 노력이 필요하지만 객관적이고 신속한 활용을 가능하게 만들어줄 모형을 제안한다. 기대주기 모델과 소비자 수용 모델이라는 이론적 배경을 바탕으로, 서지분석학과 초기 시장의 규모만으로 최대 잠재 시장을 추정해냄으로써 대표적인 확산 모형인 배스 모형(Bass model)에 필요한 주요 모수를 제공하는 방법을 제시했다. 모형의 예측력을 하이브리드자동차 사례를 통해 분석한 결과, 모형의 예측결과는 여러 가지 객관적인 정보를 통해 추정한 잠재 시장과 유사한 규모를 성공적으로 예측해 내어 모형의 활용 가능성을 확인할 수 있었다. 제안된 모형이 제공한 최대 잠재 시장은 다른 성장곡선모형에도 바로 적용 가능하다는 점을 볼 때 제안된 모형은 서지분석학을 통한 기술 확산 예측과 유망기술 탐색에 새로운 방향을 제시했다고 할 것이다.

This paper proposes a model for demand forecasting that will require less effort in the process of utilizing the new product diffusion model while also allowing for more objective and timely application. Drawing upon the theoretical foundation provided by the hype cycle model and the consumer adoption model, this proposed model makes it possible to estimate the maximum market potential based solely on bibliometrics and the scale of the early market, thereby presenting a method for supplying the major parameters required for the Bass model. Upon analyzing the forecasting ability of this model by applying it to the case of the hybrid car market, the model was confirmed to be capable of successfully forecasting results similar in scale to the market potential deduced through various other objective sources of information, thus underscoring the potentials of utilizing this model. Moreover, even the hype cycle or the life cycle can be estimated through direct linkage with bibliometrics and the Bass model. In cases where the hype cycles of other models have been observed, the forecasting ability of this model was demonstrated through simple case studies. Since this proposed model yields a maximum market potential that can also be applied directly to other growth curve models, the model presented in the following paper provides new directions in the endeavor to forecast technology diffusion and identify promising technologies through bibliometrics.

This paper describes the investigation on current state of cold storage facilities, and analysis on the demand prediction in the near future. And based on the analysis results, we prospect the scale of cold storage facilities in the near future. The main analysis results are summarized by the followings ; The present circumstances of cold storage facility are determined by investigating actual loading capacity, average stock amounts, and return number of cold storage facility. From the results, the present situation for cold storage facility is about 3% over. It is found that the average stock amounts increase gradually, and accordingly that the demand of cold storage facility is predicted to be increased, resulting that the capacity of cold storage facilities in 2013 expects to reach up to 5,250,000 ton. It is considered that the results of demand prediction has significant implications on the management of cold storage facility in the near future.

Studies on the development of various energy management programs and real-time bidirectional information infrastructures have been actively conducted to promote the reduction of power demands and CO2 emissions effectively. In the conventional energy management programs, the demand response program that can transition or transfer the power use spontaneously for power prices and other signals has been largely used throughout the inside and outside of the country. For measuring the effect of such demand response program, it is necessary to exactly estimate short-term loads. In this study, the power consumption patterns in both individual and group consumers were analyzed to estimate the exact short-term loads, and the relationship between the actual power consumption and seasonal factors was also analyzed.

This article suggests an improved method for more accurate load forecast for the power system. The authors propose an improved load forecast expert system based on expert's know-how. A field manual for the load forecast can be made using proposed method. The authors expect this article could give a guidance to those who wish to be load forecast expert.

In this study, we analyze the historical data of postal matter amount in korea, various social indexes concerning mail volume and postal data in developed countries. After correlation analysis between some variables, we suggest a new logistic model for forecasting the future mail volume. Finally, we forecast the mail volume in korea about 20 years hereafter.

The purpose of this study was to analyze basic conditions for the demand estimation erection of lifetime sports facilities. This is described the whole concept of lifetime sports(sport for all) for helping the understanding of its concept correctly. Firstly, second chapter was examined the significance, function and role of lifetime sports in modern society. Secondly, third and forth chapter was examined demand and participation of lifetime sports activities for demand estimation of lifetime sports facilities. Participation rate is on the rise by the increase in income and leisure time to some extent, but after that it stops rising. In other words, the same participation rate persists without additional increase in participation by the changes in time deepening and in the patterns of demand for lifetime sports activities.

본 논문에서는 국내 전파자원 관리를 위한 전파자원의 중장기 수요예측 방법론 개발의 전 단계로서 전파자원, 즉 주파수의 수요예측 방법론을 제시한다. 특히, 기존 공급자 위주의 하향식(Top-down) 개념의 수요예측 방법론이 아니라 무선자원을 실질적으로 소비하는 사용자를 중심으로 하는 상향식(Bottom-up) 개념의 주파수 수요예측 모형을 제시한다. 이는 크게 서비스 정의, 서비스 특성 분류, 서비스별 대표 속성 도출, 서비스 수요예측, 전파자원과의 매핑 검증 및 주파수 수요예측의 7단계로 이루어지며 각 단계에서 수행하여야 할 주요 업무를 설명한다. 아울러 PCS개인통신환경에서의 주파수 소요량 산출 예를 제시함으로서 개발된 모형의 타당성을 입증한다.

In this paper, we present a forecasting model for the spectrum demand which will be used for the mid/long-term spectrum forecasting in Korea. In specific, we present the bottom-up model with considering the customer not the previous top-down method. The Proposed model consists of service definition. classification of service characteristics, drawing representative service characteristic , forecasting of service demand, mapping with spectrum resource, verification and spectrum forecasting. The carried actions in each step is described in detail. For the validation of the model an example for the PCS environments is shown. traverse stepping stones for a variety of legitimate reasons.

최근 우리나라 전력수급 환경은 전력수요의 지속적인 성장과 더불어 입지 및 환경문제, 전력설비 건설, 재원조달, 전력산업의 경쟁효율성 문제 등 새로운 문제들에 직면하고 있다. 또한 전력사업이 한국전력의 독점체제에서 발전, 송전, 배전으로 분할되고 경쟁체제로 변함에 따라 여러 가지 새로운 문제들에 직면하고 있다. 전력설비의 건설에 따른 투자는 사업기간이 길고 많은 비용이 소요됨으로 전력수요에 대한 정확한 예측이 무엇보다 중요하다.(중략)

본 논문에서는 무선통신 서비스를 위한 필수 자원인 주파수의 수요예측 방법론을 제시한다. 이는 효율적인 국내 전파자원 관리를 위해 필수적인 업무이다. 제안한 방법론은 크게 기본 서비스군 분류, 유효 트래픽 도출 및 주파수 수요예측의 세단계로 구성된다. 기본 서비스군 분류 단계에서는 기존의 주파수 수요예측 방법론의 결과를 이용하여 서비스를 Wide area mobile, Short range radio, Fixed wireless access 및 Digital video broadcasting으로 나누며, 유효 트래픽 도출 단계에서는 총 트래픽을 erlang 및 bps 단위로 환산하여 구하는 방법을 제안한다. 구체적으로 유효 트래픽 도출 단계에서는 사용자 분류, 기본 어플리케이션 분류 및 어플리케이션별 유효 트래픽 추정의 과정을 거친다. 끝으로, 주파수 수요예측 단계에서 각 서비스군별로 서로 다른 주파수 수요예측 방법론을 제시한다.

In this paper, we propose an efficient forecasting methodology of the mid and long-term frequency demand in Korea. The methodology consists of the following three steps: classification of basic service group, calculation of effective traffic, and frequency forecasting. Based on the previous studies, we classify the services into wide area mobile, short range radio, fixed wireless access and digital video broadcasting in the step of the classification of basic service group. For the calculation of effective traffic, we use the measures of erlang and bps. The step of the calculation of effective traffic classifies the user and basic application, and evaluates the effective traffic. Finally, in the step of frequency forecasting, different methodology will be proposed for each service group.

Digital technology enhanced the improvement of technological aspects in the both broadcasting and telecommunications industries. The infrastructures of each industry converged to one, which impacts not only on technology but also on the broadcasting service. The current broadcasting service is characterized by one-way service, but it'll changed to be customized, or two-way service that reflects the interest of customers. This change requires a new standard to categorize and analyze the future broadcasting service converged and market structure, differing from the present standard based on the transmission channels. This study aims at forecasting the demand of interactive TV service as a representative broadcasting service in the near future, and analyzing the market structure of the broadcasting services. We assume that the present broadcasting and information and telecommunications services such as terrestrial, cable TV, satellite, digital TV services and high-speed broadband service have strong relationship with interactive TV service. First we use Bass diffusion method to predict the diffusion curve of the present five services. Then we analyze the relationship between the present services and interactive TV service by Delphi method. Finally we estimate the potential subscription number of interactive TV service based on the relationship among the services and diffusion parameters.

전력 계통의 운용 계획을 최적화 하기 위해서 수요예측에 관한 연구가 활발히 진행되고 있다. 기존의 수요예측 기법의 최대 오차는 특수일이 토요일과 월요일인 경우와 연휴인 경우에 발생한다. 이 중 특수일이 토요일과 월요일인 경우는 퍼지 선형회귀분석법과 상대계수법을 이용하여 우수한 결과를 도출한 바 있다. 구정과 추석은 특수일 중 평일과의 부하 차이가 가장 큰 특수일이며 약 $45{\sim}50%$ 정도가 감소된다. 이러한 부하의 감소 폭은 서서히 줄어서 연휴 당일 4일 후에는 완전히 복구가 되며 연휴 전 부하가 낮아지는 시점은 연휴 당일 3일 전이다. 연휴 예측의 불확실성은 연휴 기간의 길이 변동 및 기타 다양한 변수들에 의한 유동성에 기인한다. 특히 추석의 경우 과거 데이터 이용에 더욱 신중해야 하며 타 특수일에 비해 부하 값의 예측이 힘들다. 또한 직전 평일 대비 추석 연휴의 부하는 변화가 심하게 나타나며 본 논문에서는 퍼지 선형회귀분석법을 기본으로 변형된 알고리즘으로 향상된 예측도를 제시한다.

국내외적인 어업환경 변화 및 1997년 7월 수입자유화조치 이후 우리나라 수산물 소비행태변화에 따라 전체어업에 종사하고 있는 어선의 조업패턴과 수요량도 크게 변모하고 있다. 이와 같은 변화된 여건하에서 국내 연안어업의 실태와 어선건조물량의 분포 및 어업기술 연구개발사례 등을 살펴보고 어선의 수급에 대한 전망과 조업방법의 자동화 방향을 추정하였다.

유망 첨단 기술/제품의 수요 전망 시리즈 본고는 유망 첨단 기술에 관한 기술 수요 및 관련 제품의 시장 수요 전망 자료로서 우리 나라의 기술 수준과 기술 개발 현황을 파악하고, 연구 개발의 타당성을 점검하고자 STEPI가 특정 연구 개발 사업으로 수행한 연구 결과의 일부이다. 앞으로 총 10회에 걸쳐 다음과 같은 테마를 연재할 예정이다. (편집자 주) 1. 화합물 반도체(GaAs) 2. 통합 생산 자동화(CIM) 기술 3. 생명 공학 기술을 이용한 의약품 4. 반도체 제조 장비 5. 레이저 기술 6. 지능형 컴퓨터 7. 중급 항공기 8. 파인 세라믹 소재 9. 신고분자 소재 10. 신금속 소재

Because of the descent trend of the recent oil price and the ascent elements of the manufacturing price of public coal. the future demand of public coal is very obscured. In this paper, forecast the public coal demand by the regression analysis method reflected the policy and economic index of alternative energies.

This paper presents a generalized fuel choice model in which restrictive constraints on cross-price coefficients as Baughman-Joskow-FEA Logit Model need not be imposed, but all demand elasticities are uniquely determined. The model is applied to estimating aggregate energy demand and fuel choices for the residential and commercial sector. The structural equations are estimated by a generalized least squares procedure using national-level EPB, KDI, BK, KRIS, MOER data for 1965 and 1980, and other related reports. The econometric results support the argument that “third-price” and “fourth-price” coefficients should not be constrained in estimating relative market share models. Furthermore, by using this fuel choice model, it has forecasted energy demands by fuel sources in, the residential and commercial sector until 1991. The results are turned out good estimates to compare with existing demands forecasted from other institutes.

This paper develops a short term forecasting model for household electric power consumption in Seoul, which can be used for the effective planning and control of utility management. The model developed is based on exponentially weighted moving average model and incorporates monthly average temperature as an exogeneous factor so as to enhance its forecasting accuracy. The model is empirically compared with the Winters' three parameter model which is widely used in practice and the Box-Jenkins model known to be one of the most accurate short term forecasting techniques. The result indicates that the developed hybrid exponential model is better in terms of accuracy measured by average forecast error, mean squared error, and autocorrelated error.