Earticle

초록

영어

This study investigated the impacts of climate change on the distribution of the Near Threatened River Lapwing (Vanellus duvaucelii Lesson 1826) in Bhutan, where information about this species is not sufficient. The study aimed to understand River Lapwing’s current and future suitable habitat in Bhutan. An ensemble ecological modelling approach was used up to the year 2100, binding GLM, BRT, RF, and MaxEnt. Current and future climatic scenarios (SSP1-2.6 & SSP3-7.0) were analyzed, where the model demonstrated high predictive accuracy (average AUC=0.93, COR=0.72). Results suggested a significant threat from climate change and habitat shifts. Particularly towards central and eastern Bhutan with a considerable habitat loss in the southern region under the moderate greenhouse gas emission scenario (SSP3-7.0). The study showed that climate change is causing significant habitat shifts and losses, underscoring the need for conservation efforts to regulate human disturbance and promote climate-aligned conservation strategies for River Lapwings in Bhutan.

목차

Abstract
Introduction
Materials and Methods
Study area
Sampling design
Occurrence data and predictor variables
Data transformation and processing
Model preparation and calibration
Results
Model performance, evaluation and validation
Responses of the bioclimatic predictor variables to the ensemble prediction
Habitat suitability forecast: threshold applied prediction
Habitat suitability of river lapwing decline at the local level in Bhutan
Habitat decline at the district level in Bhutan
Habitat decline of river lapwing at the sub-district level in Bhutan
Discussion
Current distribution of river lapwing habitat by four models
Responses of the predictor variables
Habitat suitability forecast of river lapwing
Habitat suitability change and latitudinal shift of river lapwing in Bhutan
Habitat suitability declination of river lapwing at local level in Bhutan
District level declination
Sub-district level declination
Acknowledgements
References

키워드

저자

• Mirza Sium Masud [ Department of Forest Science, College of Natural Resources, Royal University of Bhutan, Punakha 14001, Bhutan ] Corresponding Author
• Dhan Bdr. Gurung [ Department of Forest Science, College of Natural Resources, Royal University of Bhutan, Punakha 14001, Bhutan ]
• Ugyen Dorji [ Department of Forest Science, College of Natural Resources, Royal University of Bhutan, Punakha 14001, Bhutan ]

참고문헌

발행기관

간행물

표지보기 관심저널 등록

• 간행물명

  Journal of Forest and Environmental Science [산림과학연구]

• 간기

  계간

• pISSN

  2288-9744

• eISSN

  2288-9752

• 수록기간

  1981~2026

• 등재여부

  KCI 등재

• 십진분류

  KDC 526 DDC 634