Earticle

초록

영어

As Japan’s aging rate is projected to reach 39% by 2070, reducing disaster-related mortality risks among the elderly has become an increasingly important urban issue. The fact that approximately 89% of victims during the Great East Japan Earthquake were aged 66 or older highlights the high vulnerability of elderly populations in evacuation settings. Although Welfare Evacuation Shelters (WES) are designated to support such populations, urban areas continue to face challenges related to insufficient capacity and spatial imbalance. This study estimates the potential number of elderly evacuees and the capacity of Welfare Evacuation Shelters in Yokohama City, using GIS (Geographic Information System)-based spatial analysis to examine the gap between evacuation demand and shelter capacity. Evacuation demand was estimated for home-dwelling elderly residents (65+) certified at Long-term Care Level 3, while shelter capacity was calculated based on the characteristics of elderly welfare facilities. The analysis was conducted at the district level (Regional Disaster Prevention Base Districts) to identify spatial disparities and local challenges. In addition, improvement scenarios—such as regional cooperation and the utilization of non-designated facilities—were proposed and evaluated. Through these analyses, the study quantitatively demonstrates the potential of elderly welfare facilities to function as regional disaster prevention hubs in increasingly aging urban environments. The results reveal a severe shortage, with total shelter capacity meeting 14.5% of estimated demand. In addition, approximately half of these districts lack any available capacity, and 10% of these areas overlap with high-risk hazard zones. By assessing the effectiveness of various policy measures, the study provides fundamental data for improving elderly evacuation strategies and enhancing the operation of WES. Furthermore, the results highlight the importance of establishing cooperative frameworks with private facilities and strengthening support systems for home-based evacuees. These efforts are essential for enhancing urban disaster resilience in aging societies.

저자

• Minju Kim [ Faculty of Urban Innovation, Yokohama National University; The University of Tokyo ]
• Inagaki Keiko [ Faculty of Urban Innovation, Yokohama National University; The University of Tokyo ]
• Yoshida Satoshi [ Faculty of Urban Innovation, Yokohama National University; The University of Tokyo ]
• Taneichi Shinya [ Faculty of Urban Innovation, Yokohama National University; The University of Tokyo ]

참고문헌

발행기관

간행물

표지보기 관심저널 등록

• 간행물명

  한국재난정보학회 학술발표대회

• 간기

  부정기

• 수록기간

  2005~2026

• 십진분류

  KDC 338 DDC 361