Earticle

초록

영어

Disasters often disrupt the physical structure and infrastructure of cities and lead to temporary or permanent population loss. While post-disaster recovery is often evaluated through physical reconstruction, infrastructure and building reconstruction alone do not ensure the restoration of social systems and community functions. Population recovery indicates the actual return of human activity and the long-term viability of affected areas. However, relatively little attention has been given to the temporal dynamics of urban population recovery. Understanding the processes and mechanisms of post-disaster population recovery is thus critical for capturing the dynamic and stochastic nature of the urban recovery process. Past research examined post-disaster population recovery and its potential drivers. Nevertheless, many studies relied on case studies or static comparisons, with limited use of data-driven approaches to capture overall temporal dynamics. This study aims to understand post-disaster population recovery over time and systematically identify recovery patterns and potential transition dynamics. Using Japan as the study area, we compile longitudinal population data for cities affected by major earthquake events since the Hyogo Framework for Action (2005). We first use cluster analysis (e.g., Dynamic Time Warping (DTW)) to group cities with similar recovery trajectories and identify common patterns across cities. In addition to comparing overall recovery trajectories, we also examine stage-specific recovery patterns (i.e., pre-disaster, short-term recovery, mid-term recovery, and long-term recovery) using a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM). We then apply a probabilistic method to estimate transition probabilities between recovery states and construct recovery pathways. The results show how recovery trajectories evolve and diverge across cities, identifying typical recovery pathways and potential transition dynamics. The findings provide an empirical basis for targeted policy interventions to support resilient post-disaster recovery.

저자

• Yun-Chi Yu [ International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku University ]
• Osamu Murao [ International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku University ]

참고문헌

발행기관

간행물

표지보기 관심저널 등록

• 간행물명

  한국재난정보학회 학술발표대회

• 간기

  부정기

• 수록기간

  2005~2026

• 십진분류

  KDC 338 DDC 361