The electrification of modern energy systems relies heavily on lithium-ion batteries, yet their high energy density exacerbates thermal runaway (TR) safety risks. Traditional TR characterization is expensive, time-consuming, and reliant on post-mortem analysis. To enable design-stage safety screening, this study proposes a physics-informed machine learning framework utilizing the open Battery Failure Databank. We curated 309 experiments and used 11 pre-test variables to predict three complementary TR severity metrics: total energy yield, unrecovered mass, and positive-end ejecta energy fraction. Evaluating four tree-based models via 10-fold stratified cross-validation, Random Forest emerged as the best baseline across all targets. Results revealed a clear predictability gradient: total energy yield showed high determinism (R² = 0.93), unrecovered mass moderate predictability (R² = 0.57), and directional ejecta energy remained stochastic (R² = 0.30). This framework can help reduce reliance on destructive testing.
목차
Abstract Introduction Methods Data source and governance Feature selection and target definition Preprocessing and cross-validation Model training and evaluation Results Predictive Performance Benchmark Discussion Interpretation of Predictive Patterns Practical Implications for Battery Safety Design. Limitations Conclusions Acknowledgments References