This study examines how brain drain impacts South Korea's cybersecurity amid shrinking R&D budgets and U.S. tariff-induced financial constraints. OLS, Bayesian, and Monte Carlo analyses consistently show that a 1 percentage-point increase in IT/security talent outflow is associated with 59–76 additional server hacking incidents (preferred specification R² = 0.938). R&D budget and AI index effects are inconsistent due to collinearity (r ≈ 0.9). Financial market volatility exacerbates funding constraints, driving talent outflows. With 40–45 % of domestic cybersecurity talent migrating abroad, SMEs—lacking resources to absorb talent shocks—face substantially elevated risks. This paper concludes that IT workforce retention (via R&D budgets) is more critical than AI adoption (AI index) for cybersecurity resilience. Policy priorities should therefore focus on long-term talent retention and shared specialist pooling for SMEs.
목차
Abstract 1. Introduction 2. Prior Study 3. Impact of Cybersecurity Weakness & Investment Dynamics in the AI Industry 3.1 Interplay Between Brain Drain, R&D Contraction, and Cybersecurity in South Korea 3.2 Comparative Insights: China’s Talent Retention vs. South Korea’s Outflow 3.3 Cybersecurity Vulnerabilities as an Industrial Risk Factor 3.4 Policy Leverage: Mitigating Brain Drain through R&D Reinforcement 4. Empirical Analysis 4.1 Methodological Approach 4.2 Data and Variables 4.3 Model Specification & Quantitative Verification of H2 as OLS 4.4 Qualitative Limitations and Integration 4.5 Bayesian Model Specification 4.6 Robustness Checks and Limitations 4.7 Summary of Empirical Findings and Implications 4.8 Policy Recommendations 5. Conclusion References