Earticle

초록

영어

The purpose of this study is to predict regions suitable for the growth of Lilium cernuum and analyze changes in the distribution of these areas under climate change. This study employed two statistical models from species distribution modeling, namely Generalized Additive Models (GAM) and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), as well as two machine learning models, Random Forest (RF) and Maximum Entropy Algorithm (MaxEnt). To minimize uncertainties inherent in statistical models, an ensemble model was applied to integrate and address these variabilities. The prediction of potential habitats for Lilium cernuum demonstrated high predictive accuracy, with AUC values exceeding 0.9 across all four models. MaxEnt achieved the highest AUC value (0.983, sd = 0.007), while GAM recorded the lowest (0.903, sd = 0.048). The results revealed that areas with a very high probability of Lilium cernuum distribution are currently concentrated along the Baekdudaegan mountain range, extending from Jirisan National Park in South Korea to the Hamgyeongnam-do region in North Korea, primarily in high-altitude forested areas. By 2070, under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, potential habitats are projected to shift to the Primorskiy region in Russia. These findings suggest that with ongoing climate change, the current potential habitat of Lilium cernuum , primarily located along the Baekdudaegan range on the Korean Peninsula, is expected to contract significantly by 2070, with a concomitant northward migration toward the Central Sikhote-Alin mountain range in the Primorskiy region of Russia, favoring high-altitude forested zones.

목차

Abstract
서론
본론
1. 연구방법 및 자료
2. 연구결과
결론
참고문헌

키워드

저자

• 정지현 [ Ji-Hyun Chung | 주식회사 다온생태연구소 대표 ]
• 백원기 [ Weon-ki Paik | 대진대학교 바이오헬스케어학부 의생명과학전공 교수 ] Corresponding Author

참고문헌

발행기관

간행물

표지보기 관심저널 등록

• 간행물명

  한약정보연구회지 [Korean Herbal Medicine Informatics]

• 간기

  반년간

• pISSN

  2288-5161

• eISSN

  2288-5293

• 수록기간

  2013~2026

• 십진분류

  KDC 519 DDC 610