We present a novel fact that green stocks carry higher inflation risk than brown stocks, performing poorly during unexpected inflation. Given this observation, can the outperformance of green stocks over brown stocks (the “greenium”) be explained as compensation for inflation risk? We find that the magnitude of the greenium decreases by 31% and 54% for Scope 1 and Scope 2, respectively, becoming statistically insignificant after controlling for individual stocks’ core inflation risk exposure. These findings are robust to excluding brown industries and are not driven by the post-COVID inflationary period, suggesting that the greenium partially reflects inflation risk compensation.
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Abstract 1 Introduction 2 Data 2.1 CRSP 2.2 Trucost 2.3 Inflation 2.4 Sample 3 Methodologies 3.1 Measuring Inflation Shock 3.2 Estimation of Inflation Beta 4 Empirical Results 4.1 Carbon Intensity and Inflation Risk 4.2 The Pricing Performance of Inflation Risk 4.3 Re-examining of Greenium 4.4 Robustness of our Key Findings 4.5 Can the Greenium explain Inflation Risk Premium? 5 Conclusion References Figure Table