Earticle

초록

영어

Background: Quantitative risk assessments should be accompanied by uncertainty analyses of the risk models employed in the calculations. In this study, we aim to develop a computational code named SUMRAY for use in cancer risk projections from radiation exposure taking into account uncertainties. We also aim to make SUMRAY publicly available as a resource for further improvement of risk projection. Materials and Methods: SUMRAY has two versions of code written in R and Python. The risk models used in SUMRAY for all-solid-cancer mortality and incidence were those published in the Life Span Study of a cohort of the atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The confidence intervals associated with the evaluated risks were derived by propagating the statistical uncertainties in the risk model parameter estimates by the Monte Carlo method. Results and Discussion: SUMRAY was used to calculate the lifetime or time-integrated attributable risks of cancer under an exposure scenario (baseline rates, dose[s], age[s] at exposure, age at the end of follow-up, sex) specified by the user. The results were compared with those calculated using another well-known web-based tool, Radiation Risk Assessment Tool (Rad- RAT; National Institutes of Health), and showed a reasonable agreement within the estimated confidential interval. Compared with RadRAT, SUMRAY can be used for a wide range of applications, as it allows the risk projection with arbitrarily specified risk models and/or population reference data. Conclusion: The reliabilities of SUMRAY with the present risk-model parameters and their variance-covariance matrices were verified by comparing them with those of the other codes. The SUMRAY code is distributed to the public as an open-source code under the Massachusetts Institute of Technology license.

목차

ABSTRACT
Introduction
Materials and Methods
1. Overview
2. Baseline Risk
3. Equation
4. Monte Carlo Sampling
Results and Discussion
1. Parameters of ERR/EAR Models
2. Acute Exposure
3. Chronic Exposure
4. Comparison of CER with Other Risk Calculators
5. Other Considerations
Conclusion
Supplementary Materials
Conflict of Interest
Acknowledgements
Ethical Statement
Data Availability
Author Contribution
References
Supplementary Materials and Methods
1. Usage of the R Library Provided in SUMRAY
2. Usage of the Python Script Provided in SUMRAY
3. Acute Exposure
4. Chronic Exposure

키워드

저자

• Michiya Sasaki [ Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Abiko, Japan ] Corresponding Author
• Kyoji Furukawa [ Biostatistics Center, Kurume University, Kurume, Japan ]
• Daiki Satoh [ Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Tokaimura, Japan ]
• Kazumasa Shimada [ Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Tokaimura, Japan ]
• Shin’ichi Kudo [ Radiation Effects Association, Chiyoda, Japan ]
• Shunji Takagi [ Mitsubishi Research Institute, Chiyoda, Japan ]
• Shogo Takahara [ Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Tokaimura, Japan ]
• Michiaki Kai [ Department of Health Science, Nippon Bunri University, Oita, Japan ]

참고문헌

발행기관

간행물

표지보기 관심저널 등록

• 간행물명

  방사선방어학회지 [Journal of Radiation Protection and Research]

• 간기

  계간

• pISSN

  2508-1888

• 수록기간

  1976~2026

• 등재여부

  KCI 등재,SCOPUS

• 십진분류

  KDC 559 DDC 629