Earticle

초록

영어

Climate change and invasive alien plant species (IAPs) are having a significant impact on mountain ecosystems. The combination of climate change and socio-economic development is exacerbating the invasion of IAPs, which are a major threat to biodiversity loss and ecosystem functioning. Species distribution modelling has become an important tool in predicting the invasion or suitability probability under climate change based on occurrence data and environmental variables. MaxEnt modelling was applied to predict the current suitable distribution of most noxious weed A. adenophora (Spreng) R. King and H. Robinson and analysed the changes in distribution with the use of current (year 2000) environmental variables and future (year 2050) climatic scenarios consisting of 3 representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) in Bhutan. Species occurrence data was collected from the region of interest along the road side using GPS handset. The model performance of both current and future climatic scenario was moderate in performance with mean temperature of wettest quarter being the most important variable that contributed in model fit. The study shows that current climatic condition favours the A. adenophora for its invasion and RCP 2.6 climatic scenario would promote aggression of invasion as compared to RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climatic scenarios. This can lead to characterization of the species as preferring moderate change in climatic conditions to be invasive, while extreme conditions can inhibit its invasiveness. This study can serve as reference point for the conservation and management strategies in control of this species and further research.

목차

Abstract
Introduction
Materials and Methods
Study area and survey districts
Sampling design and method
Species distribution modelling using MaxEnt
Occurrence data and Environmental data acquisition
Data transformation and processing
Model calibration
Model validation
Statistical significance test for increase and decrease invasion area
Results and Discussion
Model training for selection
Species responses to different environmental variables
Importance of environmental variables to the model performance
Spatial projection
Climate change persistence niche
Conclusion
Acknowledgements
References

키워드

저자

• Singye Lhamo [ Masters of Science in Natural Resource Management, College of Natural Resources, Royal University of Bhutan, Punakha 14001, Bhutan ] Corresponding Author
• Ugyen Thinley [ Environment and Climate Studies, College of Natural Resources, Royal University of Bhutan, Punakha 14001, Bhutan ]
• Ugyen Dorji [ Department of Forest Science, College of Natural Resources, Royal University of Bhutan, Punakha 14001, Bhutan ]

참고문헌

발행기관

간행물

표지보기 관심저널 등록

• 간행물명

  Journal of Forest and Environmental Science [산림과학연구]

• 간기

  계간

• pISSN

  2288-9744

• eISSN

  2288-9752

• 수록기간

  1981~2026

• 등재여부

  KCI 등재

• 십진분류

  KDC 526 DDC 634