System-Dynamics를 활용한 중국의 산업발전과 한국경제에 대한 파급효과 연구
The Study on the Industry Development in China and the Repercussion Effect on Korea using System Dynamics
The technology gab in the manufacturing sector between China and Korea has narrowed from 4.7 years in 2002 to 3.7 years in 2011 and to 3.3 in 2015, especially that in IT industry to 2.6 years in 2015. The material and component industry in China entered into the step of an export industry and now pushing the import substitution. Therefore it is necessary for Korea to establish the medium and long term export strategy as the response strategy to China. From the investigation, TSI(Trade Specialization Index) and RTI(Regional Trade Intensity) are calculated as the ground work for a reset of export strategy. As a result, this paper analyses and estimates the change of China’s trade pattern based on the industrial development phases and furthermore, understand the medium and long term change progress of trade pattern untill 2025 by using the simulation technique of System Dynamics.
목차
Abstract Ⅰ. 서론 Ⅱ. 한중 경제관계에 대한 연구방법 및 범위 Ⅲ. 중국의 한국무역에 대한 TSI와 RTI Ⅳ. 연구의 정책적 함의 Ⅴ. 결론 참고문헌