Earticle

초록

영어

This study aimed to predict changes in forest area using a probability density function, in order to promote effective forest management in the area north of the civilian control line (known as the Minbuk area) in Korea. Time series analysis (2010 and 2016) of forest area using land cover maps and accessibility expressed by distance covariates (distance from buildings, roads, and civilian control line) was applied to a probability density function. In order to estimate the probability density function, mean and variance were calculated using three methods: area weight (AW), area rate weight (ARW), and sample area change rate weight (SRW). Forest area increases in regions with lower accessibility (i.e., greater distance) from buildings and roads, but no relationship with accessibility from the civilian control line was found. Estimation of forest area change using different distance covariates shows that SRW using distance from buildings provides the most accurate estimation, with around 0.98-fold difference from actual forest area change, and performs well in a Chi-Square test. Furthermore, estimation of forest area until 2028 using SRW and distance from buildings most closely replicates patterns of actual forest area changes, suggesting that estimation of future change could be possible using this method. The method allows investigation of the current status of land cover in the Minbuk area, as well as predictions of future changes in forest area that could be utilized in forest management planning and policymaking in the northern area.

목차

Abstract
 Introduction
 Materials and Methods
  Study area
  Research materials
  Research method
 Results and Discussion
  Forest area distribution and change in area by distance covariate
  Calculation of mean and variance for each weighting method by distance category
  Estimation and verification of amount of forest area change by distance covariate
  Prediction of forest area change using weighting methods by distance covariates
 Conclusion
 Acknowledgements
 References

키워드

저자

• Jinwoo Park [ Department of Forest Management, College of Forest and Environmental Sciences, Kangwon National University, Chuncheon 24341, Republic of Korea ]
• Jeongmook Park [ Department of Forest Management, College of Forest and Environmental Sciences, Kangwon National University, Chuncheon 24341, Republic of Korea ]
• Jungsoo Lee [ Department of Forest Management, College of Forest and Environmental Sciences, Kangwon National University, Chuncheon 24341, Republic of Korea ] Corresponding author

참고문헌

발행기관

간행물

표지보기 관심저널 등록

• 간행물명

  Journal of Forest and Environmental Science [산림과학연구]

• 간기

  계간

• pISSN

  2288-9744

• eISSN

  2288-9752

• 수록기간

  1981~2025

• 등재여부

  KCI 등재

• 십진분류

  KDC 526 DDC 634