한·중·일 서비스수출의 결정요인에 대한 동태적 인과성 : 패널 FMOLS와 패널 VECM의 적용
Dynamic Causality on Determinants of Service Export in Korea, China, and Japan : Application of Panel FMOLS and Panel VECM
This paper examines the dynamic causality on determinants of service export in Korea, China, and Japan using panel unit-root, panel cointegration framework, panel fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and panel vector error correction model (VECM). Different panel unit root tests reveal that the panel data series are first order integrated processes with unit roots. Since the panel cointegration relationships confirmed using three methods (panel ADF, panel PP, and Panel M-W), this paper proceeds to estimate the FMOLS. The panel FMOLS tests show that the service export has positive relationship with World Industrial Activity (WIA) while Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) has negative effects. Furthermore, the panel dynamic causality results show strongly evidence of the long- and short-run unidirectional causality from world industrial activity to service export in Korea, China, and Japan.