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Design for Forecasting System of Tobacco Sales Based on Time Series
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- 발행기관
- 보안공학연구지원센터(IJUNESST) 바로가기
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- 간행물
- International Journal of u- and e- Service, Science and Technology 바로가기
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- 통권
- Vol.9 No.8 (2016.08)바로가기
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- 페이지
- pp.331-342
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- 저자
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- 언어
- 영어(ENG)
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- URL
- https://www.earticle.net/Article/A285024
※ 원문제공기관과의 협약기간이 종료되어 열람이 제한될 수 있습니다.
원문정보
초록
- 영어
- The sales forecast in the tobacco sales management plays a great role in the production and operation activities of an enterprise as a bridge between the production activity and the economic benefit. Forecasting system based on time series is put forward in accordance with the characteristics of tobacco sales by knowing about market supply and demand as well as development tendency at home and abroad through the sales forecast, with the help of studies on the sales forecasting technology. Time series is a sequence of random variables in chronological order and the time series analysis technique includes the moving average forecasting, exponential smoothing and regression analysis. According to the characteristics of tobacco sales data, the moving average forecasting model, exponential smoothing model and regression analysis model are established. Through programming, a forecasting system of tobacco sales is set up, which is used in combination with examples to simulate the forecasting model, and then model tests are conducted on the simulation results to get the appropriate model, which is used for sales forecast. The establishment of the system has an important influence on the management of tobacco companies. According to the forecast of tobacco sales, they will know the sales of the next period, so that they can take effective sales management strategies to improve the accuracy and efficiency of the decisions on the company's production and operation.
목차
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Methods of Time Series Forecast Modeling
2.1. Average Value Forecasting
2.2. Moving Average Modeling
2.3. ES Modeling
3. Regression Analysis
3.1. Regression Analysis
3.2. Realization of Regression Analysis Modeling and Analysis of the Forecast Results
4. Conclusions
References
키워드
Tobacco sales Forecasting technique Time series forecast Exponential smoothing Regression analysis저자
간행물 정보
발행기관
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- 발행기관명
- 보안공학연구지원센터(IJUNESST) [Science & Engineering Research Support Center, Republic of Korea(IJUNESST)]
- 설립연도
- 2006
- 분야
- 공학>컴퓨터학
- 소개
- 1. 보안공학에 대한 각종 조사 및 연구 2. 보안공학에 대한 응용기술 연구 및 발표 3. 보안공학에 관한 각종 학술 발표회 및 전시회 개최 4. 보안공학 기술의 상호 협조 및 정보교환 5. 보안공학에 관한 표준화 사업 및 규격의 제정 6. 보안공학에 관한 산학연 협동의 증진 7. 국제적 학술 교류 및 기술 협력 8. 보안공학에 관한 논문지 발간 9. 기타 본 회 목적 달성에 필요한 사업
간행물
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- 간행물명
- International Journal of u- and e- Service, Science and Technology
- 간기
- 격월간
- pISSN
- 2005-4246
- 수록기간
- 2008~2016
- 십진분류
- KDC 505 DDC 605
이 권호 내 다른 논문 / International Journal of u- and e- Service, Science and Technology Vol.9 No.8
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