Earticle

초록

영어

Current probabilistic power flow calculation methods mostly consider the uncertainties of loads and the random failures of generators without thinking about the changing of the grids structure. Hence, this paper proposes a new probabilistic power flow calculation method comprehensively considering the influences of the uncertainties of wind farms, loads, generators, and grids structure on power flow calculation. The linear relationships are deduced between the nodes injection power and the branch active power as the circuits being at failures, and the cumulative probability distribution of each branches power flow is calculated by using semi-invariant and Gram-Charlier series expansion, and such that the complicated convolution operation is avoided. Combining compensation method and the conditional probability theory to deal with network structure changes of random factors, the paper establishes a probability flow calculation model comprehensively considering diverse factors such as random outputting power of the wind farms, random changes of the loads, and random failures of the generators, and the random variation of the grid structures and so on, the probability distribution function and probability density function of each branch can be quickly obtained by the model. Through the analysis on IEEE 14-node system, the uncertainty of grid structure has a remarkable effect on the probability distribution of the quantity to be solved. Hence, applying the proposed method can provide planners with more accurate and comprehensive information.

목차

Abstract
 1. Introduction
 2. Model Description
  2.1 Semi-invariant
  2.2 Relationships between Semi-invariant and Moments
  2.3 Gram-Charlier Series
 3. Probabilistic Models of Wind Generator
  3.1 Wind Speed Probability Model
  3.2 Active Power Output Curve of Wind Generator
  3.3 Probability Distribution of Wind Generator Power
 4. Probability Power Flow Analysis
 5. Randomly Switching On and Off Treatment for Branch
 6. Processing Model on Branch Correlation
 7. Specific Applications on Semi-invariant
 8. Examples Analysis
 9. Conclusion
 References

키워드

저자

• Hongsheng Su [ School of Automation and Electrical Engineering, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China ]
• Yan Yan [ School of Automation and Electrical Engineering, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China ]

참고문헌

발행기관

간행물

표지보기 관심저널 등록

• 간행물명

  International Journal of Security and Its Applications

• 간기

  격월간

• pISSN

  1738-9976

• 수록기간

  2008~2016

• 등재여부

  SCOPUS

• 십진분류

  KDC 505 DDC 605