Earticle

초록

영어

Churn is a defection from a service provider. This study explores the role of social network in customers’ churn behavior .As the saying goes; customer is the god in service-based industries. Since the cost of customer acquisition is much greater than the cost of customer retention, customer churn prediction is more and more important. So far, research on churn prediction has involved user profile factors and social factors, but the analysis lacks interpretability and predictive horizon. In this paper, for a better understanding of churn behavior in MMORPG, we use longitudinal statistical models to examine whether the churn behavior in one person is associated with the churn of his friends on a complete data set of an entire society. Discernible clusters of active persons and inactive persons are visible in the network, and the relationship between people’s churn behavior extends up to three separations. Besides, we provide quantitative evidence for the strong ties hypothesis. The higher the number of common friends two persons have, the influence between them is more significant. At last, we use mixed effects cox models to predict churn in the future. Our study can provide a long forecast horizon, it is an obvious advantage to prevent the churn of a person.

목차

Abstract
 1. Introduction
 2. Related Work
  2.1. Churn Analysis
  2.2. Social Contagion
 3. Method and Analysis
  3.1. Data Description and Network Ascertainment
  3.2. Churn Definition and Related Terms
  3.3. Preliminary Analysis
  3.4. Network Analysis
  3.5. Statistical Analysis
 4. Experiments and Results
 5. Conclusion
 Acknowledgements
 References

키워드

저자

• Jun Ding [ East China University of Science and Technology ]
• Daqi Gao [ East China University of Science and Technology ]
• Xiaohong Chen [ Shandagames ]

참고문헌

발행기관

간행물

표지보기 관심저널 등록

• 간행물명

  International Journal of Smart Home

• 간기

  격월간

• pISSN

  1975-4094

• 수록기간

  2008~2016

• 십진분류

  KDC 505 DDC 605