Earticle

초록

영어

Forecasting technology in economic activity is a quite intricate procedure so researchers should grasp the point of the data to use. Diffusion models have been widely used for forecasting market demand and measuring the degree of technology diffusion. However, there is a question that a model, explaining a certain market with goodness of fit, always shows good performance with markets of different conditions. The primary aim of this paper is to explore diffusion models which are frequently used by researchers, and to help readers better understanding on those models. In this study, Logistic, Gompertz and Bass models are used for forecasting Global Wireline Subscribers and the performance of models is measured by Mean Absolute Percentage Error. Logistic model shows better MAPE than the other two. A possible extension of this study may verify which model reflects characteristics of industry better.

목차

Abstract
 1. 서론
  1.1 연구 배경
  1.2 연구 목적
 2. 이론적 배경
  2.1 예측방법론의 종류
  2.2 기술의 혁신과 확산
  2.3 확산 모형
  2.4 최근 연구 동향
 3. 실증 연구 설계
  3.1 분석자료 및 연구모형
  3.2 모형의 비교와 평가
 4. 예측력 비교 및 분석결과
 5. 결론 및 시사점
 참고문헌

키워드

저자

• 민의정 [ Min Yui Joung | 과학기술연합대학원대학교 과학기술정책 석사과정 ]
• 임광선 [ Lim Kwang Sun | 한국전자통신연구원 ]

참고문헌

발행기관

간행물

표지보기 관심저널 등록

• 간행물명

  JITAM [Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management]

• 간기

  격월간

• pISSN

  1598-6284

• eISSN

  2508-1209

• 수록기간

  1999~2026

• 십진분류

  KDC 005 DDC 005