Perceptions of election poll reporting and their effects on the support for election poll censorship: Structural equation models for mediating roles of the third person effect, importance of electability, and voting behavior and moderating role of education level
This study focuses on importance of perceptions of election polls published by mass media and their effects on the support for election poll censorship. Two hypothetical models using SEM technique are tested against survey data from a sample of 422 residents of Ulsan metropolitan city in S. Korea. One model predicts that the biased media perception affects the support for censorship through mediating third person effect and sincere vote, while the other model predicts that horse race reporting affects the support for censorship through mediating third person effect and strategic vote. Two models fit well with the data. In both models the third person effects were found to play key roles in the mediation processes. We discussed several unexpected findings from the data analysis and their implications for the Korean Election Act, Article 108 by which the media publication of election poll results is prohibited during the last 6 days before the election date.
목차
Abstract 1. THEORETICAL BACKGROUNDS 1.1 Election poll censorship 1.2 Biased vs. Horse race perceptions of election poll reporting 1.3 The third person effect: perceptual differences 1.4 Behavioral consequences and protectionism 2. HYPOTHETICAL MODELS 3. RESEARCH METHODS 3.1 Perceived election poll reporting: biased vs. horse race reporting perception 3.2 The third person effect of biased vs. horse race reporting perception 3.3 Sincere vote vs. strategic vote 3.4 The importance of electability 3.5 Support for election poll censorship 4. RESULTS 4.1 Results for data analysis for Model A 4.2 Test results for Model B 5. Moderating role of education level(MODEL B) 5.1 Dividing Sample by Education Level 5.2 Goodness-of-fit test indices for the hypothetical model by education level 5.3 Results from statistical significance tests of path coefficients 6. DISCUSSION 6.1 Diverging power of media perceptions 6.2 Suspicious paternalism explanation of strategic vote 6.3 Implications for Election Act Article 108 REFERENCES
키워드
Hostile media perceptionHorse-race reportingSupport for CensorshipVoting behaviorCandidate ElectabilityThird-Person Effect
한국정치커뮤니케이션학회 [Korean Political communication Association]
설립연도
2004
분야
사회과학>정치외교학
소개
올바른 민주주의 창달과 확산을 위해 정치커뮤니케이션 현상에 대한 체계적이고 사변적인 접근과 연구가 절실히 요구되고 있는 상황이다. 이에 한국정치커뮤니케이션학회를 창립하여 올바른 민주공동체의 길을 찾고자 노력한다. 본 학회는 이념적 편향성을 지양하고 학문적 이론과 더불어 정치적 실제에 대한 연구도 지향할 것이다.