Earticle

초록

영어

The meteorological community has limited understanding of how users interpret forecast information and use it in decision making. So Morss (2010) conducted a survey and result of the survey can help provide information that user can interpret and use effectively. The threshold decision question of the survey asked respondents their probabilistic forecast threshold for taking protective action against the adverse weather. And the respondents have different probability thresholds and selected a somewhat higher threshold than 50% of forecasts chance. But probability threshold to maximize the forecast`s satisfaction value score was lower threshold than 50%. So in this paper, respondent’s distribution from the survey was changed to confirm whether the group’s satisfaction index can be improve or not. A concept of user’s satisfaction index for the estimation of the forecast value of dichotomous events was introduced by Lee (2010). And group’s satisfaction index was defined a sum of each user’s satisfaction index. We used a forecast and observed data of Seoul, Korea produced by Korea Meteorological Administration since 2002. In conclusion, a satisfaction index of group who use probabilistic weather forecast can be improved by changing decision threshold of users than improving forecast accuracy.

목차

Abstract
 서론
 분석모형
  Picnic 시나리오
  2×2 Verification Table
 개인 및 그룹 가치스코어(Value Score)
  한 사용자 기준 가치스코어
  사용자그룹 기준 가치스코어
 예보 데이터 적용 결과
  실제 강수예보의 가치스코어
  Morss그룹과 대칭그룹 간 비교
  예보정확도와 임계확률분포 간 가치스코어 비교
 결론
 Acknowledgments
 References

키워드

저자

• 이기광 [ 단국대학교 경영학부 ]

참고문헌

발행기관

간행물

표지보기 관심저널 등록

• 간행물명

  한국경영정보학회 정기 학술대회 [KMIS Conference]

• 간기

  반년간

• 수록기간

  1990~2025

• 십진분류

  KDC 325 DDC 658