Earticle

초록

영어

The Korean government announces that a farmland reverse mortgage system(FRMS) will be established in 2011 in the world for the first time. It liquidates the farmland assets of the rural elderly land owners, like the housing reverse mortgage which liquidates the housing assets of elderly homeowners in order to resolve the lack of living costs for the elderly farmers. The purpose of this study suggests the long-term forecasting method farmland price which is a key factor in establishing the model of farmland reverse mortgage. It uses an ARIMA and Monte Carlo Simulation method (Integrated model) to reflect the stochastic aspect which is included in the long-term land value forecasting. The farmland value forecasted with Integrated model shows the probability distribution considering the volatility of farmland price rate. The future higher value in the FRMS actuarial model results in the less default risk in the aspect of a FRMS lender. Its results show that the price of Jun(the land use of field for cultivating farm products) is higher than that of Dab(the land use of paddy field) in the deterministic estimation method. It concludes that the Integrated model which reflects the uncertainty and volatility in the long-term forecasting method is better than ARIMA, VAR, or deterministic method for the building the value forecasting model for the establishment of the long-term FRMS.

목차

Abstract
 1. 서론
 2. 농지역모기지 계리모형과 농지가격예측의 이론적 검토
  2.1. 농지역모기지 계리모형
  2.2. 농지가격예측 관련 연구
 3. 농지가격 예측모형의 정립
 4. 농지가격예측 및 시뮬레이션
  4.1. 분석자료: 지가변동률통계
  4.2. 시계열분석
  4.3. 농지가격예측 및 시뮬레이션
 5. 결론
 참고문헌

키워드

저자

• 여창환 [ Yeo, Chang-Hwan | 대구대학교, 행정대학 연구교수 ] 주저자
• 조덕호 [ Cho, Deok-Ho | 본 학회 정회원, 대구대학교 행정대학 행정학과 교수 ] 교신저자

참고문헌

발행기관

간행물

표지보기 관심저널 등록

• 간행물명

  한국지역개발학회지 [Journal of the Korean Regional Development Association]

• 간기

  연5회

• pISSN

  1225-9055

• 수록기간

  1989~2026

• 등재여부

  KCI 등재

• 십진분류

  KDC 322 DDC 330