Earticle

초록

영어

We propose a model for the line expansion problem in the AMOLED (Active Matrix Organic Light Emitting Diodes) industry, which now faces market uncertainty: for example, changing customer needs, technological development path, etc. We focus on the optimal investment time and size of the AMOLED production lines. In particular, employed here is the ROV (Real Options Valuation) model to show how to capture the value of line expansion and to determine the optimal investment time. The ROV framework provides a systematic procedure to quantify an expected outcome of a flexible decision which is not possible in the frame of the traditional NPV (Net Present Value) approach.
Furthermore, we also use Monte Carlo simulation to measure the uncertainty associated with the line expansion decision; Monte Carlo simulation estimates the volatility of a decision alternative. Lastly, we present a scenario planning to be conducted for what-if analysis of the ROV model.

목차

Abstract
 1. 서론
 2. 산업분석
 3 .모델
  3.1 Real Option
  3.2 리얼옵션의 변수정의
  3.3 ROV Analysis
 4. 결론
 References

저자

• 이수정 [ 경희대학교 일반대학원 정보디스플레이기술경영학과 ]
• 김도훈 [ 경희대학교 경영대학 ]

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