Earticle

초록

영어

This paper introduces a system called Simulation-based Stochastic Bidding Cost Estimation System (S2BC) that use simulation modeling and analysis technique. It better represents the real world system involved in construction bidding.
The prediction accuracy was compromised because of the assumptions which existing models have adopted. However, The S2BC complements the lack of accuracy. Historical bidding data obtained from the Korea National Housing Corporation was used to validate the method. Bidding projects in the Historical DB were selected by random sampling. The ration of bidding let was calculated using the occurrence of participants who entered into a specific bidding. On the assumption that bidding pattern retained on the historical DB has reproducibility, the probability of winning was computed using the cumulative probability distribution that is obtained from the user defined numbe r of random sampling of bidding projects out of the Historical DB. The existing computation, which is handled by means of deterministic procedure, was converted into stochastic model using simulation modeling and analysis technique. The best fitted probability distribution function is estimated using the historical data. The reliability of estimating probability of winning on specified bidding let is improved using the S2BC.

목차

Abstract
 1. 서론
  1.1 연구배경 및 목적
  1.2 연구범위
  1.3 연구의 방법 및 절차
 2. 기존 입찰전략 정량분석 모델들의 문제점들
 3. 방법론
  1단계: 과거 프로젝트별 입찰 참여회사 데이터 수집
  2단계: 랜덤추출법을 이용한 입찰참여 경쟁사 생성
  3단계: 시뮬레이션 반복 수행
  4단계: 지정 투찰율에서 낙찰확률 분석
 4. 사례연구
  4.1 주경쟁사의 입찰패턴 분석
  4.2 시뮬레이션 출력데이터 통계분석
 5. 결론 및 한계점
 참고문헌

저자

• 임태경 [ Lim, Tae-Kyung | 경북대학교 건설공학부 학사과정, 정회원 ]
• 김률희 [ Kim, Ryul-Hee | 경북대학교 건설공학부 석사과정, 정회원 ]
• 이창용 [ Yi, Chang-Yong | 경북대학교 건설공학부 석사과정, 정회원 ]
• 이동은 [ Lee, Dong-Eun | 경북대학교 건설공학부 교수, 종신회원 ]

참고문헌