Earticle

초록

영어

Due to the spread of COVID-19, the global film industry has contracted. During the pandemic, despite a threefold increase in movie ticket prices and measures such as seat distancing and hygiene policies leading to growth in some markets, overall theater revenue has significantly decreased. Meanwhile, the domestic film industry heavily relies on theaters, making the qualitative and quantitative performance of theaters crucial for the local film industry. To formulate rational policies and support programs for the revitalization of domestic cinemas post-COVID, accurate predictions of future demand based on past trends and conditions are necessary. In this regard, this study utilized daily data from domestic theaters during the COVID period(January 2020 to November 2022) and conducted an analysis using the time series data from the KOBIS integrated cinema ticket sales network with the SARIMA(Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model. Using the SARIMA(2,1,1)(1,1,1) model, the study predicted the demand for domestic theaters. The projected revenue for December 2022 is 56,572,751,791 KRW, January 2023 is 61,304,940,895 KRW, February 2023 is 56,907,966,752 KRW, March 2023 is 57,824,715,379 KRW, April 2023 is 57,862,879,861 KRW, May 2023 is 55,334,524,160 KRW, June 2023 is 56,329,705,690 KRW, July 2023 is 59,368,175,418 KRW, August 2023 is 56,657,568,782 KRW, September 2023 is 53,003,698,673 KRW, October 2023 is 59,157,399,199 KRW, and November 2023 is 60,293,580,379 KRW.

목차

ABSTRACT
Ⅰ. Introduction
II. Theoretical Background
2.1 Domestic Movie Theaters
2.2 Demand Forecast for Domestic Movie Theaters
Ⅲ. Methodology
3.1 Data for the Research
3.2 Methodology of Seasonal ARIMA
Ⅳ. Results
4.1 Ensuring Stationary
4.2 Seasonality Test
4.3 Model Identification and Estimation
4.4 Perform Forecasting
4.5 Diagnostic Checking
Ⅴ. Discussion
References

저자

• Lee, Sae-Beul [ Doctor, Department of Business Administration, Pusan National University ]
• Zhang, Siyu [ Doctoral Student, Department of Tourism Management, Pukyong National University ]
• Yhang, Wii-Joo [ Professor, Department of Tourism Management, Pukyong National University ] Corresponding Author

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