Earticle

초록

영어

In this paper, we present empirical testing result to examine the validity of inbound supply and outbound demand risk factors in the sense of early predicting the firm’s bankruptcy risk level. We draw upon industrial value chain theory to extract risk factors from supply chain risk perspective. On the basis of input-output table, industry level inbound and outbound sectors are identified to formalize supply chain structures and relevant inbound and outbound risk factors. Then, publicly available macro economic indicators are used to appropriately quantify these risk factors. Total 68 industry level bankruptcy risk forecasting results are presented with the average R-square scores of between 53.4% and 37.1% with varying time lag.

목차

Abstract
 1. 서론
 2. 전방위험과 후방위험
 3. 방법론
  3.1 산업가치사슬 정형화
  3.2 위험 요인 선정
  3.3 부도예측모델
  3.4 분석대상 산업 선정
 4. 산업별 위험 예측력 결과
 5. 결언
 References (selected)

저자

• 한현수 [ 한양대학교 경영대학 교수 ]
• 박근영 [ 한양대학교 경영대학 박사과정 ]

참고문헌