In this study, To develop long-term prediction simulator of urban environmental load, housing sector modeling in busan was made through a system dynamics from 1985 to 2010. Causal relation of variable was drew for housing models in a group unit of urban system. A housing model was made with main variable factors such as construction rate and demolition rate about detached house, apartment house and multiplex house. Simulation results and statistics had had similar findings. Thus, housing stock in busan was predicted using housing model that was made system dynamics.
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Abstract 1. 서론 2. 시스템 다이내믹스를 이용한 주택섹터의 모델화 2.1 영향인자의 결정 2.2 매력승수의 결정 3. 주택섹터의 모델화 3.1 주택섹터의 영향인자 및 매력승수 결정 3.2 부산시 주택모델의 정도 검증 4. 결론 참고문헌